⌘ FileEditGo VisibleHand v0.3
VisibleHand — Open Country Risk API
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VisibleHand
Risk Monitor
Introduction

An open, programmable political-economic risk score for every country — built from live World Bank, IMF, GDELT/ACLED, V-Dem data and NLP on central-bank statements. Free. Calibrated. Transparent.

Click the Dashboard tab below after you've seen the Introduction.

Live Dashboard Compare Risk Map World Map ASCII Terminal API Docs Methodology
$ curl api.visiblehand.xyz/risk/AR { "country": "AR", "composite": 84.3, "ci_low": 77.1, "ci_high": 91.2, "confidence": 0.82, "risk_level": "Very High", "breakdown": { "economic": 88.1, "political": 71.0, "nlp": 85.0, "governance": 79.4 }, "driver_attributions": [ {"name": "high_inflation", "contribution": 18.2}, {"name": "high_debt_burden", "contribution": 12.1} ], "forecast": { "6m": {"composite": 87.0, "ci": [79, 95]}, "12m": {"composite": 90.1, "ci": [78, 100]} } }
What's in the Box
Scored vs own history

Robust median/MAD normalisation — a country is judged against its own trajectory, not a global mean.

Bayesian uncertainty

Every score ships a 95% CI from 500-sample Monte Carlo. No commercial competitor publishes bounds.

Hawkish/dovish NLP

FinBERT + domain lexicon reads central-bank statements with aspect-level breakdowns.

Hawkes process

Political violence is self-exciting. We fit a Hawkes process per country and report the branching ratio.

Governance layer

V-Dem, WJP Rule of Law, TI CPI, and Freedom House — structural factors that economic data misses.

6/12-month forecast

Theil-Sen extrapolation on score history + IMF WEO projections. Transparent about what it is.

Free & open-source  ·  Commercial equivalents cost $15–50k/yr API Documentation ▸
Browse Dashboard World Terminal API Methodology Exit