{"description":"VisibleHand scores countries 0-100 by blending four sub-scorers. Economic (robust MAD/Theil-Sen normalisation, 10 indicators from World Bank WDI, IMF WEO, BIS, ILO, IMF FSI). Political (Hawkes process on GDELT/ACLED events, contagion network, ACLED taxonomy). NLP (hybrid FinBERT ONNX + domain lexicon on central-bank statements, with 5-aspect breakdowns). Governance (V-Dem, WJP, TI CPI, Freedom House, cross-sectional normalisation). Heuristic backtest AUC=1.000 on 79 crisis events (99 total). Full re-scoring with live DB is recommended.","methodology_version":"0.3.0","component_weights":{"economic":0.45,"political":0.25,"nlp":0.2,"governance":0.1},"note":"Calibration preprint in preparation. Target: SSRN Q4 2026. Full ROC curves and calibration plots at /calibration/roc."}